Another day, and my inbox is once again filled with the question that almost every aspiring author wants answered: What is the sure-shot way to become a bestselling indie author?
I never tire of answering it. However, this time I thought it would be better to write an article and share it with everyone who has ever asked me that question. Hopefully, it will save me from typing the same answer repeatedly, and perhaps challenge a few common misconceptions along the way.
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Every few weeks, someone discovers the “secret” to selling books.
“Use TikTok.”
“Spend on Amazon ads.”
“Write to market.”
“Get a BookTok influencer.”
“Publish every 30 days.”
“Write romance.”
“Create a newsletter.”
The advice changes every year. The confidence with which it is delivered never does.
If there really were a sure-shot formula for book sales, every author who followed it would be on the bestseller list.
They aren’t.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Publishing is one of the few industries where people confuse probability with certainty.
You can increase your chances of success.
You cannot guarantee it.
Thousands of brilliantly written books disappear into obscurity every year, while books with obvious flaws occasionally become international sensations.
If anyone claims they possess a guaranteed blueprint for bestseller status, ask one simple question:
Why isn’t every one of their own books a bestseller?
That is precisely why, right at the beginning of The Modern Author’s Playbook, I make it clear that if you are looking for shortcuts or guaranteed ways to sell books, then this is not the book for you. What I share are the current best practices, strategies that may work for you, or they may not. Much depends on the size of your marketing budget, the breadth of your marketing efforts, and, ultimately, the audience you are trying to reach.
Survivorship bias Is everywhere
Most writing advice comes from successful authors.
That sounds reasonable until you realise something important.
You’re hearing from the winners.
You rarely hear from the thousands of writers who did everything “correctly” and still sold only a few hundred copies.
Imagine interviewing lottery winners about financial planning.
Their advice might be interesting.
It wouldn’t necessarily explain why millions of other people lost.
The publishing world suffers from the same problem.
Success stories are highly visible.
Failures are practically invisible.
The formula that worked yesterday
Publishing trends age like milk.
A decade ago, everyone said Facebook Pages were essential.
Then it was Amazon giveaways.
Then BookBub promotions.
Then Instagram.
Then TikTok.
Now people are chasing AI-generated marketing, YouTube Shorts and whatever platform promises to be the next gold rush.
By the time a strategy becomes common knowledge, thousands of authors are already doing it.
The advantage disappears.
Even bestselling authors can’t repeat success
Here’s another inconvenient fact.
Many bestselling authors have written books that underperformed.
If success followed a fixed recipe, they would never have a disappointing release.
Yet it happens constantly.
A hit book often results from a unique combination of timing, cultural relevance, word of mouth, luck, quality, marketing and reader psychology.
Replicating all of those factors is almost impossible.
Marketing matters… but it isn’t magic
Some writers swing to the opposite extreme.
“My writing is enough.”
It usually isn’t.
Readers cannot buy a book they don’t know exists.
Marketing matters.
Cover design matters.
Editing matters.
Reviews matter.
Pricing matters.
Distribution matters.
Consistency matters.
But none of them, individually or collectively, guarantees success.
Marketing improves visibility.
It does not force people to love your book.
Luck is real-and that’s okay
Many authors hate acknowledging luck because it feels unfair.
It is unfair.
A celebrity mentions your book.
An influencer randomly recommends it.
A video goes viral.
In a world where almost everything comes at a price, paying for all three can be a significant expense.
A news event suddenly makes your topic relevant.
A reputed book club picks your novel.
None of these can be scheduled.
Luck exists in every creative profession.
Ignoring it doesn’t make it disappear.
The good news is that luck usually favours people who keep showing up.
The more books you publish, the more readers you reach, and the longer you remain active, the more opportunities luck has to find you.
So what actually works?
There is no guaranteed formula.
There are only practices that improve your odds.
Write books people genuinely enjoy.
Invest in professional editing. Even if you edit your own books, professional editing still remains essential.
Create covers that readers expect in your genre.
Learn marketing without becoming obsessed by it.
Build relationships with readers instead of chasing algorithms.
Network with fellow authors. I regularly invite authors and literary professionals to discuss their books on my podcast. In the process, I have had the privilege of meeting some remarkable writers, and many have, in turn, invited me onto their own platforms to talk about my books. This kind of mutual support helps both parties reach new audiences. Word-of-mouth recommendations from respected authors and industry professionals can be one of the most effective, and credible, forms of book marketing. This is just one way to network. You can also attend writers’ conferences, author seminars, literary events and book festivals to meet fellow authors, publishers, agents and other industry professionals. These events provide valuable opportunities to build genuine relationships and introduce people to your work in a natural, meaningful way.
Above all, keep writing.
Survive long enough for your work to compound.
Many “overnight successes” spent ten years becoming invisible before anyone noticed them.
Stop looking for shortcuts
The internet loves certainty because certainty sells courses.
“Guaranteed bestseller.”
“Six figures in six months.”
“The publishing hack nobody talks about.”
These headlines attract clicks because they promise control over something that is inherently unpredictable.
Books are not manufactured products.
They are cultural products.
Culture doesn’t follow spreadsheets.
Readers are human beings, not algorithms.
The only formula that has never gone out of fashion
There is one pattern shared by most successful authors.
They didn’t stop.
Some took five books to find their audience.
Others took twenty.
Many were rejected dozens of times before a breakthrough.
Persistence is hardly exciting advice.
It won’t fit neatly into a viral social media post.
It won’t sell expensive masterclasses.
But unlike miracle formulas, it has survived every change in publishing.
To summarize
Is there a sure-shot formula for book sales?
No.
There never has been.
There never will be.
There are strategies that improve your chances, mistakes that reduce them, and habits that increase your odds over time. But certainty does not exist.
Even investing a substantial amount of money in marketing can only guarantee visibility, not sales.
Perhaps that’s exactly why writing remains such a fascinating pursuit.
If success could be manufactured on demand, publishing would become another assembly line.
Instead, every book is a gamble, a blend of craft, persistence, timing and chance.
The irony is that authors who stop searching for the mythical formula and focus on writing better books, reaching more readers and staying in the game are often the ones who eventually find success. Not because they discovered a secret, but because they understood there never was one.
Pic source – Pixabay
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